China and Afghanistan : A saga of new relations

 Relations between Afghanistan and China have been mostly friendly throughout history, with trade relations between these regions dating back to at least the Han dynasty with the profitable Silk Road. Presently, both countries have embassies in Beijing and Kabul respectively, and the two countries share a rugged 76-kilometre (47-mile) international border. For the past two decades, China has kept a low profile in Afghanistan, focusing more on resource and material mining than on peace brokering. 

 US President Joe Biden's announcement that U.S. troops will be gone from Afghanistan by August 31 removed the most formidable obstacle to total Taliban takeover of the country. Afghanistan fell into the hands of the Islamist militant group over a weekend, as it seized the capital of Kabul as well as the Presidential Palace. After the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan, the Taliban made stunning battlefield advances — and nearly the whole nation is now under the insurgents' control.

China is ready to deepen “friendly and cooperative" relations with Afghanistan, a government spokeswoman said Monday, after the Taliban seized control of the country.

 

China said that it “welcomes” the chance to deepen ties with Afghanistan, a country that has for generations been coveted for its geo-strategic importance by bigger powers and expresses the hope that the Taliban will stand by its commitment of establishing an “open and inclusive” Islamic government in Afghanistan and will ensure a peaceful transition of power without violence and terrorism.

The Belt and Road Initiative 

The Global Times published an article on Aug. 15, citing Chinese experts, pointed out that the country can "contribute to post-war reconstruction and development, pushing forward projects under the China-proposed Belt and Road Initiative." 

Beijing has reportedly been actively engaging with Kabul on construction of the Peshawar-Kabul motorway, which would connect Pakistan to Afghanistan and make Kabul a participant in China's massive infrastructure and investment plan, the Belt and Road Initiative. Beijing is also building a major road through the Wakhan Corridor—a slim strip of mountainous territory connecting China's westernmost province of Xinjiang to Afghanistan—and onward to Pakistan and Central Asia, complementing its existing road network through the region.

 Once completed, these new thoroughfares should enable Beijing to pursue its goals of increased trade with the region and natural resource extraction in Afghanistan. 

Afghanistan's rare earth minerals

Minerals and rare earth metals in Afghanistan were estimated to be worth between $1 trillion and $3 trillion in 2020, according to a report in news magazine The Diplomat, citing Ahmad Shah Katawazai, a former diplomat at the Afghan Embassy in Washington D.C. A report by American news organization The Hill earlier this year put the value at about $3 trillion. 

China dominates the rare earths market globally. About 35% of rare earth global reserves are in China, the most in the world, according to the United States Geological Survey.The country is also a mining machine, producing 120,000 metric tons or 70% of total rare earths in 2018, compared to the U.S. which mined 15,000 metric tones of rare earths the same year, it said.

With the growing relations with Afghanistan, China may be able to align itself with Taliban and try to exploit Afghanistan's rare earth metals. 

More risk than opportunities

There has been much talk about how China could seize the moment to fill the vacuum left behind by the US and expand its presence and influence there. Such arguments have only intensified following the high-profile meeting between Taliban leaders and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi last month, where Wang declared the Taliban would "play an important role in the process of peaceful reconciliation and reconstruction in Afghanistan."

"China does not tend to perceive Afghanistan through the prism of opportunities; it is almost entirely about managing threats," said Andrew Small, a fellow at the German Marshall Fund in Washington, in an interview with the European Council on Foreign Relations.

China is particularly concerned that Afghanistan would become a base for terrorists and extremists fighting for the independence for the largely Muslim region of Xinjiang. But the security risks are not bound to China's borders. In recent years, China has invested heavily in Central Asia through its Belt and Road trade and infrastructure program. A spillover effect of the Taliban's rise to power on Islamist militants could potentially threaten Chinese economic and strategic interests in the wider region.

Thus, even though the growing ties with Afghanistan may open an array of opportunities, all of it would be undermined if the Taliban does not keep thier end of the deal and retorts to violence and terrorism.